Cycles of Power, Collapse, and Rebirth

The Four Horsemen of the Economic Confidence Model and The Fourth Turning

Introduction: Understanding the Nature of Crisis and Cyclical Decline

There is a relentless drive in human history, a tide of inevitability where crises rise, not from the malicious designs of individuals, but from the crumbling of systems, from the exhaustion of ideas, and from the structural failures within institutions that refuse to adapt. The collapse we are now witnessing is not a mere accident of fate, nor the result of any single error. Rather, it is the consequence of predictable forces embedded within the nature of human societies and economies. It is a phenomenon that has cycled repeatedly throughout history, as individual autonomy, ambition, and economic principles clash with the stagnant weight of outdated institutions and complacency.

Two distinct frameworks, Martin Armstrong’s Economic Confidence Model (ECM)¹ and the generational theory of The Fourth Turning by William Strauss and Neil Howe, ²illuminate this inevitable reckoning. Armstrong’s model depicts the cycles of economic confidence and the unavoidable arrival of societal challenges, while The Fourth Turning delineates the unfolding of four generational epochs, culminating in a period of dramatic crisis. In combination, these frameworks reveal that we are living in a unique convergence, where the old world is being demolished by its own inefficacy, and a new world is struggling to emerge from the rubble. The Four Horsemen of the ECM—War, Plague, Disease, and Famine—ride alongside the Fourth Turning’s cycle of crisis, heralding a transformation for which we must neither resist nor lament but rather understand and prepare.

The Economic Confidence Model: A Science of Human Systems

Martin Armstrong’s Economic Confidence Model is no abstract theory. It is a rigorous analysis, a model founded on empirical evidence and the underlying cycles of human behavior. The ECM’s cycles—each lasting 8.6 years, derived from the mathematical constant pi—reveal a rhythmic ebb and flow in economic confidence. These cycles are neither random nor purely reactive but follow an innate structure within human societies, wherein periods of growth and optimism invariably give way to periods of decline and pessimism. According to Armstrong, this cycle is intrinsic to the dynamics of human action, where prosperity inevitably breeds complacency and decline.

Within this structure are the Four Horsemen: War, Plague, Disease, and Famine. These Horsemen are not cosmic curses but the result of natural law; they are the consequence of misaligned priorities, failed governance, and societies that ignore the fundamentals of self-reliance, innovation, and sustainable growth. They are the inevitable outcome of a civilization that grows soft, clinging to outdated systems in denial of the new realities before it. The ECM makes it clear that these crises are not external evils imposed upon us but are the result of human action—or inaction.

The Fourth Turning: Generational Cycles and the Demands of Renewal

While Armstrong’s model addresses the cycles of economic confidence, Strauss and Howe’s The Fourth Turning explores history as a series of generational epochs. Each cycle, spanning approximately 80-90 years, moves through four distinct “turnings,” each defined by a unique generational response to the world around them. The First Turning is an era of high civic order, the Second of awakening and questioning, the Third of unraveling and individualism. Finally, the Fourth Turning—the Crisis—arrives, demanding a reckoning, a purging of the old, and the painful birth of the new. The Fourth Turning is a period of intense transformation and upheaval, one that cannot be avoided or delayed, for it is not only embedded in generational rhythms but in the cycles of human life and ambition.

This Fourth Turning brings with it an interregnum—a void in which the old systems no longer function, and the new order has yet to be formed. This crisis is inevitable and, if met with courage and clarity, offers the potential for renewal. Yet it requires a generation willing to confront the failures of the past, to discard what no longer serves, and to build anew. We are living within this Fourth Turning, and every sign—from the collapse of public trust in institutions to global unrest to economic instability—tells us that the systems upon which we have relied are now obsolete, destined for the dustbin of history.

War: The Horseman of Scarcity and Ambition

The first Horseman, War, is a consequence of scarcity and ambition. Armstrong’s ECM predicts that war, far from being an irrational anomaly, emerges when nations and leaders confront the limitations of their own systems and resources. In periods of economic decline, as confidence in existing structures erodes, the drive for dominance intensifies. War becomes a choice, not of savagery, but of desperation and distraction—a last grasp at influence when the foundations of power begin to crumble. Today’s global conflicts, from territorial disputes to ideological clashes, echo the principles of Armstrong’s ECM and the Fourth Turning, revealing the instinctive response of a decaying world order to its own collapse.

The recent conflicts we see—from Russia’s aggression in Ukraine to the intensifying power struggles in East Asia—are not isolated events. They are the predictable responses of leaders who face scarcity and see opportunity only in the subjugation of others. War, in this sense, is an economic and generational inevitability—a reaction to the limits of unsustainable growth and a desperate bid to preserve a dying order.

Plague and Disease: The Crisis of Neglect

Plague and Disease, two of the remaining Horsemen, are not mystical occurrences. They are consequences of neglect, indifference, and the hollowing-out of systems that ought to protect. As the ECM cycle enters a period of decline, societies under economic strain tend to neglect vital infrastructures, leaving their populations vulnerable to health crises. The COVID-19 pandemic exemplifies this phenomenon—a crisis borne not merely of contagion but of fragile health systems, overextended global networks, and a society that prioritizes short-term profit over long-term resilience.

These health crises, far from anomalies, are symptoms of the ECM’s pattern and The Fourth Turning’s reckoning. When prosperity falters, healthcare suffers, and the Horsemen of Plague and Disease enter, laying bare the weaknesses that have been ignored or intentionally underfunded. Chronic illnesses, mental health struggles, antibiotic resistance, and zoonotic diseases are not abstract threats; they are markers of a society unprepared for its own vulnerabilities. The Horsemen of Disease and Plague do not punish; they merely reveal the truth—a society in decline cannot mask its flaws indefinitely.

Famine: The Unavoidable Reckoning of Mismanagement and Resource Depletion

Famine, the final Horseman, is perhaps the most unforgiving. Famine is the direct consequence of a society that has, over time, abandoned the principles of sustainable resource management. In Armstrong’s ECM, famine emerges not from natural disaster but from the misallocation of resources, the fragility of supply chains, and the unrestrained hubris of leaders who believe that wealth can be conjured without labor or sustainability. The Fourth Turning reinforces this truth: a civilization in its final crisis cannot sustain itself, and the cracks in its infrastructure become gaping voids.

Famine is the consequence of both economic cycles and generational failure. As climates shift, populations grow, and wars erupt, food scarcity becomes a reality for nations that once believed themselves invulnerable. The ECM and The Fourth Turning converge here, revealing that the breakdown of infrastructure is no longer a hypothetical threat but an ongoing collapse, one that demands nothing less than a reimagining of how society allocates and conserves its resources.

The Necessity of Knowing Our Place in the Cycle

Understanding where we stand within these cycles is not a luxury—it is an imperative. Ignorance of history’s patterns does not protect us from their impact. Recognizing that we are in a Fourth Turning allows us to confront the crisis with clarity rather than false hope. Armstrong’s ECM and the generational framework of The Fourth Turning tell us that the systems and institutions of the West are in their death throes. Attempts to salvage what is decayed will only delay the inevitable and exacerbate the decline.

There is no individual to blame for this collapse; the blame lies in the refusal to adapt, the insistence on preserving systems that no longer serve. The center has not failed to hold because it was weak, but because it has vanished, leaving us in an interregnum—a period between the collapse of the old and the creation of the new. As we navigate this era, we must resist the impulse to cling to obsolete systems and instead recognize the necessity of a new order.

Embracing the Demands of Crisis and Renewal

Both the ECM and The Fourth Turning demand that we face the truth: the structures that once provided stability, prosperity, and unity are now relics, incapable of supporting a modern world. This is not a time for sentimentality or nostalgia; it is a time for hard realism. The crisis we face, with all its hardship, is also an opportunity for transformation. It is the task of a generation to build anew, to create systems that do not simply replicate the old order but transcend it.

This interregnum, though daunting, is also liberating. We are freed from the constraints of what once was and are compelled to envision what could be. As the Horsemen ride and the old structures fall, the space for innovation, integrity, and self-reliance grows. Our task is not to prevent the inevitable decline but to prepare for the rebirth that follows. It is in this crucible of crisis that the foundations of a stronger society can be forged.

Embracing the Cycles as Catalysts for a New Order

The Four Horsemen of the Economic Confidence Model and The Fourth Turning reveal an inescapable truth: history is cyclical, governed by patterns as relentless as the tides. To resist these cycles is to cling to illusions, to believe that we are exempt from the forces that have shaped every civilization before us. We are not victims of these cycles, nor are we their masters. We are the inheritors of a moment that demands understanding, resilience, and, above all, clarity of purpose.

In the face of decline, our task is not to preserve what is already lost but to embrace the destruction as a necessary phase of rebirth. Every structure that has outlived its usefulness must fall, and every institution that fails to serve the individual must be abandoned. The Horsemen and the Fourth Turning are not punishments but reminders that growth must be earned, that order must adapt, and that the principles of reality cannot be denied.

As we stand at the precipice of this transformation, we must recognize the demands of this interregnum. We are here not to mourn the end of an era but to lay the foundations of a new one. The center has gone, and in its absence, we are challenged to create something worthy of its place—a new order forged in the fires of crisis, built on principles that honor individual freedom, sustainability, and the indomitable will to create and thrive.

The cycles of history compel us not to helplessness but to action. To understand these cycles is to accept that while the past has set the stage, the future is unwritten. The Horsemen may ride, but we are the ones who will shape what follows. In the crucible of this Fourth Turning, a new generation is tasked with building a society that rises above the ruins of the old, rooted in integrity, self-reliance, and an unyielding commitment to the power and potential of the individual. This is our moment, and if we face it with conviction, we do not merely survive the crisis—we transcend it, creating a future worthy of the human spirit and of the boundless possibilities that lie within it.

A massive thank you to Gordon White (@Runesoup) for introducing me to Cycle Theory! I highly recommend his current Time Magic course – check it out at runesoup.com.

1. www.armstrongeconomics.com

2. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strauss–Howe_generational_theory